Out of all of the positions that make up a complete fantasy roster, gauging where to take a quarterback in a draft is especially difficult. While it typically goes without saying that you should hold off on drafting a quarterback until after the first couple of rounds, there can be exceptions to this rule if you truly believe there is a consistently accurate gunslinger on the table. However, that exception does not apply to this years quarterback draft class as their is intriguing depth at the position, which includes some passers that are poised to bounce back from off seasons in 2016.
Wherever you decide to draft a quarterback, always ensure that you’re keeping an eye on the best player available so as to avoid reaching for a enticing signal caller too quickly. As is the case with drafting most positions in fantasy football, it is paramount that you see how the asset you draft fits into the make up of your team while being acutely aware of what a players defined role is in reality.
10. Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
Despite having one of the most well-established statistical floors of any quarterback (thrown for at least 4,200 yards in seven out of eight seasons and has averaged 3o touchdowns per season since 2008), Rivers is rarely regarded as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy football. To be fair, Rivers has not posted a top-10 fantasy season since 2013, but a healthy Keenan Allen and the addition of rookie Mike Williams should allow Rivers to rely on a deeper receiving corps than he did last season (4.7% drop rate, 10th highest in the NFL). While some will view Rivers’ 21 interceptions (career high) as a red flag, I am inclined to believe that Rivers bounces back and effectively uses the weapons around him to become a top fantasy quarterback again.
9. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
When healthy, Andrew Luck has tremendous upside as a fantasy quarterback as he has finished in the top-four at the position in three of the last four seasons. While Luck has missed 10 games over the last two seasons, the time off has not inhibited his development as he posted career highs in completion percentage (63.5%) and average yards per passing attempt (7.78) in 2016. The main reason that Luck will have a difficult time breaching the top five this season is the improvement of AFC South defenses (the Texans have one of the best while the Jaguars and Titans are steadily improving in this department) along with having a weak supporting cast (Colts became slightly weaker in this regard with the departure of Phillip Dorsett). Still, provided Luck can stay relatively healthy this season, he is easily a top-10 quarterback and will continue to post big numbers during most weeks in fantasy.
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Defying nearly all of odds and overcoming the immense pressure that comes with being a starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott displayed veteran composure to post one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. While Prescott did not produce the volume that fantasy owners would have liked, he did manage to post an impressive stat line of 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions and ran for a position-high six touchdowns. All of this equated to Prescott finishing as the sixth best fantasy quarterback, which is likely his ceiling. Nevertheless, Prescott’s success last season was predicated on being disciplined in the pocket while spreading the ball around to his teammates to keep opposing defenses guessing. As a result, Prescott will regress slightly but will still manage to post a top-10 fantasy season when all is said and done.
7. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Many pundits are predicting Jamies Winston to have a breakout season fantasy wise and I am completely on board with that notion. Yes, Winston’s careless turnovers are concerning (33 interceptions in two seasons), but the fact that he loves to sling the ball downfield (10.3 average depth of throw) has him poised to be a big time fantasy scorer throughout the season. The addition of DeSean Jackson and the continued elite presence of Mike Evans caters perfectly for what Winston likes to do as a passer. On top of that, the addition of O.J. Howard will be tremendously helpful to Winston as both a beefy pass-catcher and as reliable blocker on the offensive line. While Winston is a borderline high-risk fantasy quarterback, the receiving weapons he has at his disposable should allow him to take a considerable step forward as a fantasy asset.
6. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Posting one of the his worst fantasy seasons in 2016 due to injury, Wilson should be primed for a bounce-back year if he is completely healthy. Given the fact that the Seahawks were much more reliant on the passing attack last season (Wilson threw for 4,129 passing yards, 10th most in NFL) should encourage fantasy owners in giving Wilson the benefit of the doubt. The addition of Eddie Lacy will help the Seahawks establish a fairly reliable rushing game, which will give Wilson more confidence as the success of the offense will not be entirely predicated on his passing capabilities.
5. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
Considering the noticeable and consistent improvement that Kirk Cousins has displayed as a fantasy quarterback (eighth in fantasy points in 2015, fifth in 2016), it’s hard to imagine him finishing outside of the top-five in 2017. Cousins is a high-volume passer (606 passing attempts) who is confident when it comes to passing the ball downfield (8.1 yards per passing attempt, third amongst quarterbacks). When you combine Cousins’ coveted abilities as a passer with his underrated capabilities as a runner (nine rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons), it’s easy to see why he should be considered a top fantasy quarterback.
4. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons and Matt Ryan were one of the best offenses in the league thanks to the gifted mind of former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. While Shanahan’s departure to San Francisco will inevitably result in some regression offensively for the Falcons, Matt Ryan should not be expected to take much of step backward. Last season, Ryan averaged an insanely high 9.26 yards per pass attempt, which when coupled with having the leagues second-lowest drop rate(2.6%) allowed Ryan to post big numbers nearly every week. Ryan’s impressive completion percentage (has not competed less than 66% of his passes since 2012) and a healthy Julio Jones should be more than enough for the veteran passer to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Let’s get one thing straight: Tom Brady is great. Like supremely great. Despite missing the first four games of the season in 2016, Brady miraculously threw for 28 touchdowns (7th) and ranked fifth in completion percentage (67%). However, the most eye-popping number that fantasy owners will love is that Brady posted a top-10 fantasy week in 58% of his outing. The only thing that will hold Brady back from being the best quarterback in fantasy is his injury prone supporting cast (outside of Brandin Cooks, Brady does not have an elite weapon that does not come with injury concerns) and yes, his age (40). While Brady has shown no sign of slowing down, the fact remains that severe regression can come at anytime and we’ve seen it happen with Peyton Manning (MVP season in 2015, had one of his worst seasons in 2016). I’m not saying that this will happen to Brady, but considering father time is undefeated, it is certainly a realistic possibility.
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
While we all know that the Saints are one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL, the fact that veteran quarterback Drew Brees has been at the helm of this legendary offense for years should tell all you need to know regarding his fantasy value. A top three fantasy quarterback in seven of the last 11 seasons (and no worse than sixth during that span), Brees’ high-volume combined with his top-notch accuracy (has not completed less than 68% of his passes since 2013) have made him a fantasy crown jewel for years. While the loss of Brandin Cooks stings slightly, Brees has made a living at spreading the ball around and will continue to do so en route to another top finish in fantasy.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
After starting off the season with an unimpressive 4-6 record, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers caught fire and lit up opposing defenses with their dynamically fearless offense until they finally succumbed to a slightly better Falcons squad. The top-scoring fantasy quarterback last season, Rodgers finished top-five in pass attempts, completions, passing yards and touchdowns. Oh, and did I mention that Rodgers is superb out side of the pocket and can use his legs to score (369 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns)? The addition of Martellus Bennet, along with the three-headed receiving dragon of Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb should allow Rodgers to be the best quarterback in fantasy football for a second consecutive season.
