As pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training a few weeks ago, two of the marquee bats on the free age market remained inexplicably unsigned and frustratingly unpredictable: Would Eric Hosmer return to the Royals? Or would agent Scott Boras be able to sell a wannabe-contender like the Cardinals or Blue Jays on the 28-year-old first-basemen’s Gold Glove-defense and playoff acumen? And what about J.D. Martinez? The guy hit 45 home runs in 130 games last season, but at age 30 and with a series of injuries to put behind him, could Boras still snag him a hometown deal back in Arizona in the $170-200 million range?
Well, a few weeks went by, and we finally got our answers: Hosmer signed an eight-year deal worth $144 million with the desperate San Diego Padres, who should, by all projections, still miss the playoffs this season. Martinez, however, signed a five-year contract with the power-starved Boston Red Sox worth $110 million, a surprisingly cheap deal that’s front-loaded and full of opt-out clauses. What happens then, though, with the teams that lost out on these two guys? And what about the players who still have yet to be signed? As Spring Training gets under way, let’s take a look at the five best players left on the free agent market.
Jonathan Lucroy
As a catcher entering his age-32 season, there isn’t too much thought that Lucroy could act as the missing piece to a playoff contender’s lineup, as was the thought when the Rangers traded Milwaukee for him at the All-Star break in 2016. Still, Lucroy is only four seasons removed from a 4th-place finish in the NL MVP race, a season which saw him smack 68 extra-base-hits, including 53 doubles, and two seasons removed from batting .292 with 24 homers for the Brewers and Rangers. Traded from Texas to Colorado at the midway-point of last season, Lucroy finished with only 30 total extra-base hits in 2017, and while his second-half in Colorado saw him hit over .300 in 175 plate appearances, that likely won’t matter much to GMs or the fans of their teams. Expect Lucroy to get paid by someone for his duties, and expect him to get a shot to start. We’ve seen what he can do when he’s hitting right, and not a lot of catchers can match it.
Alex Cobb
Following back to back seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, Cobb made only five rocky starts for the Rays in 2015-2016 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. 2017 saw him bounce back in a big way, though as he went 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA while featuring a curveball and splitter-heavy arsenal of pitches. There are injury concerns, obviously, but Cobb has proven to have near ace-level stuff when he’s healthy, and at age 30 there’s still plenty of time for him to develop a finesse-based, change-of-speed pitching style and extend the effectiveness of his repaired elbow. While Tampa Bay did offer him a $17.4 million qualifying offer, there’s no way they can afford to sign him long term, leaving Cobb in a bit of an in-between right now. Following an offseason of passes from the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers, teams such as Texas, Baltimore or even the Angels would seem most willing to strike a relatively rich, short-term deal for a quality third starter if the circumstances are right.
Lance Lynn
Lynn is one of those strangely consistent starting pitchers. Every year, outside of 2016 when he underwent Tommy John surgery, you could more-or-less hang your hat on him throwing 180-200 innings, winning 15 games or so, and posting an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00. He won 18 games at age 25, had an ERA of 2.74 in 200 innings at age 27, and was the Cardinals career-leader in strikeouts per nine-innings through the first five years of his career. He looked decent last year, too, posting 11 wins and a mid-3 ERA in his first season back from elbow surgery, though a dip in strikeout numbers as he enters his age-31 season doesn’t make him too tempting on a long-term deal. He, like, Cobb, floats somewhere in between underrated and unpredictable, though don’t be surprised to see him land somewhere in the NL eventually, be it with the J.D. Martinez-less Diamondbacks or even the Marlins, who are still obligated to field a full team this season.
Jake Arrieta
Unlike the other pitchers on this list, Arrieta has reached the peak of baseball dominance, having won a Cy Young, a World Series, thrown two no-hitters, and pitched perhaps the single greatest half-season of baseball ever seen. But at 32 and coming off back-to-back seasons of marked regression, it’s no wonder teams have seen him as more of a cause for alarm than hope. If you’re paying Arrieta, you’re paying him for the foreseeable future. It’s hard to imagine his agent Scott Boras taking anything less than $100 million, but it’s also pretty hard to imagine anyone signing him for more than 5 years at $20 million per. While the Phillies and Brewers have both shown interest after making some moves this offseason to bolster their offenses, both should remain wary of the potential return on investment for such a contract unless they can get it down to three years. Either way, it’ll be up to Arrieta to prove that he can continue to prove his doubters wrong and adapt in age the way a Chris Carpenter or Roy Halladay did.
Mike Moustakas
Once upon a time, “Moose” and former Royals slugger Eric Hosmer were going to take the league by storm as part of Kansas City’s new generation of star prospects. It took both players some time to feel things out, with Hosmer starting off phenomenally before encountering a sophomore slump; Moustakas, however, was arguably a disappointment up until last year. Yes, he was a part of two World Series teams, and he even posted a pretty damn good .284/.348/.570 line with 22 home runs in 2015 when they won it all, but he had never become the player he was expected to be. Then, suddenly, he was crushing 38 home runs, striking out only 94 times, and setting a career high in RBIs with 85. So why hasn’t he been paid yet? It could be a few things: Moustakas is a third basemen, and not one who adds too much defensively. His career on-base percentage sits at an abysmal .305. He is slow and inflexible. Perhaps he lucks out and a middling, small-market team once again overpays for a prime-aged slugger building off a strong season. Perhaps he goes back to Kansas City on a hometown discount. At this point, he better hope somebody comes knocking. Might be smart to invest in a first basemen’s glove, too. Just in case.
