It’s starting to get real folks. While the past weekend of college football matchups lacked serious intrigue in terms of wildly unpredictable upsets, it did effectively reveal the contenders and pretenders. The Fighting Irish won emphatically at home over a Trojans squad that had been turnover prone throughout the season, effectively knocking USC out of the playoff picture. Penn State earned a redemption victory over an offensively inept Michigan Wolverines program that is currently unranked as a result of the loss. Both of the aforementioned victors have tough matchups this week against formidable ranked opponents, which will be crucial for both Notre Dame and Penn State to further solidify their resumes. Will the Cinderella teams prevail this week or will the top dogs continue to assert their dominance?
Oklahoma State Cowboys (11) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (23)
After scoring no less than 31 points in a game throughout the season, the Cowboys prolific offense was stifled against a scrappy Longhorns defense, barely winning the contest by a score of 13-10. While the Mountaineers may not have a competent defense, they have been able to prevail more often than not thanks to a top-5 passing attack led by quarterback Will Grier who has already thrown for 26 touchdowns this season. However, the Mountaineers have been living on the edge the last couple of weeks as they needed a second-half comeback to beat Texas Tech and barely held off a late-game comeback by the winless Baylor Bears last week. Although the Cowboys are not necessarily known for their defensive prowess, it’s adequate enough to give them the slight breathing room they will need to win an epic shootout.
Final Score: Cowboys 34 Mountaineers 28 Spread: Oklahoma State -7.5
Louisville Cardinals vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
There’s no getting around it, the Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in college football. In their losses this season, the Cardinals have given up 39 points or more, something that has overshadowed the draw-dropping athleticism of Lamar Jackson. Conversely, the Demon Deacons have been one of the more resilient defenses in college football as they gave up no more than 19 points in their first four games of the season (won all four). However, Wake Forest has struggled to stifle dynamic offenses, as they have lost three straight to Florida State, Clemson, and Georgia Tech most recently. Simply put, both teams have serious flaws and their one-dimensional natures will consistently keep them out of the limelight as truly competitive programs. I’ll give the edge to the Cardinals in this one simply because the Demon Deacons have struggled on defense recently and will have their hands full with a Lamar Jackson led offense.
Final Score: Cardinals 34 Demon Deacons 26 Spread: Louisville -3.0
TCU Horned Frogs (4) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (25)
While there have been several teams that have persevered over early season woes, the Cyclones have looked particularly impressive since losing a heartbreaker to Iowa 44-41 in week 2. Since quarterback Kyle Kempt took over passing duties against the Sooners, the Cyclones have sported one of the better passing attacks in college football with the senior passer completing nearly 70% of his passes. However, the Cyclones have not faced a program quite as well-balanced and defensively fierce as the Horned Frogs. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has looked fantastic all season long, completing less than 66% of passes only once this season. On top of that, the Horned Frogs have a potent rushing attack led by running back Darius Anderson (5.8 rush yards per game), something the Cyclones have not had in the explosive but wildly inconsistent rusher David Montgomery. The Cyclones will hang tough throughout this contest, but the Horned Frogs simply have more firepower on both defense and offense.
Final Score: Horned Frogs 35 Cyclones 28 Spread: TCU -6.0
NC State Wolfpack (14) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9)
Out of all of the ranked vs. ranked contests that are available to view this week, this may be one of the more compelling matchups to take in. While both teams have contrasting offensive styles, both have been effective at scoring consistently while boasting two impressive defenses. Wolfpack quarterback Ryan Finely has been one of the most underrated players in college football this year, as he has thrown 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions to go along with a highly efficient completion percentage of 69.4%. What the Fighting Irish lack in a cerebral passer, they more than make up for with a fast-paced rushing game that looked especially dominant against the Trojans last week. While I’m a firm believer as the Wolfpack being legitimate competitors in the ACC, the proven defense and relentless rushing attack of the Fighting Irish will be a bit too much for NC State to handle down the stretch.
Final Score: Wolfpack 26 Fighting Irish 30 Spread: Notre Dame -7.5
Michigan State Spartans (16) vs. Northwestern Wildcats
If you love defensive grudge matches, you’ll love what this particular contest has to offer. While the Spartans have struggled to pass the football, their effective rushing attack, and otherworldly defense have kept them in games down the stretch. Although the Wildcats have struggled to run the football this year, their defense has been much sharper over the past two weeks and quarterback Clayton Thorson has been more adept at using his legs to score for the Wildcats. While the Spartans have the better defense, their inconsistent offense will finally catch up with them in this underrated Big 1o affair that will see the Wildcats eek out an impressive victory at home.
Final Score: Spartans 13 Wildcats 19 Spread: Michigan State -2.0
Penn State Nittany Lions (2) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (6)
On paper, this contest could possibly be the best regular season matchup of the year. In the major categories on offense and defense, the differences between these two teams are so minuscule that it’s hard to gauge the strengths and weaknesses that could determine the outcome of this game. While the Buckeyes have a more versatile rushing attack led by Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins, the Nittany Lions arguably have the best player in the country in running back Saquon Barkley who can do it all. In terms of quarterback play, it’s hard to downplay what quarterback J.T. Barrett has done on the field since losing in week 2 to Oklahoma (has thrown at least two touchdown passes per game since September 16th). However, quarterback Trace McSorley is much more battle tested and made a well-respected Michigan defense look silly as he was able to both run and throw the football with immense success. Given how evenly matched these two defenses are, the deciding factor will likely come down to which quarterback makes the most plays. In that regard, I’m giving a very slight edge to a dynamic and confident McSorely on the road.
Final Score: Nittany Lions 30 Buckeyes 28 Spread: Ohio State -6.0
Houston Cougars vs. USF Bulls (17)
While the Bulls have not been featured prominently in the prime-time spotlight, quarterback Quinton Flowers has been one the most productive playmakers on the field this year. While he’s not a great passer in terms of accuracy, he can make some impressive deep passes from time to time and possesses the sheer speed to blow past defensive lines in the ground game. Although the Cougars have a much better passer in quarterback Kyle Postma, their once resilient defense has looked dreadful over the past two weeks as they have given up 40+ points to the likes of Tulsa and Memphis. The Bulls, on the other hand, have looked great defensively throughout most of the season and should be able to stay undefeated this week given what they can do offensively.
Final Score: Cougars 21 Bulls 35 Spread: USF -10.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oklahoma Sooners (10)
This intriguing prime-time matchup features two of the best passing attacks in college football while neither one is particularly effective defensively. While the Red Raiders rank near the bottom of the FBS in terms of points allowed (30.9 per game), they’ve been able to remain competitive because of the superb quarterback play of Nic Shimonek (completion percentage of 70.9 on the season). However, while Shimonek has been the saving grace for the Red Raiders, Heisman candidate Baker Mayfield has been better as he has completed 73.8% of his passes for 19 touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 11.62 yards per pass attempt. Although the Red Raiders should be able to hold their own in the first half, their poor defense will eventually succumb to a superior passing game on the road.
Final Score: Red Raiders 34 Sooners 44 Spread: Oklahoma -20.0
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers (7)
Throughout the first six games of the season, the Tigers looked like the best team in the country on both offense and defense. After dispatching three top-14 ranked opponents in their first five games, the Tigers appeared to be on cruise control en route to an undefeated season. Then they played Syracuse. Although quarterback Kelly Bryant was knocked out of the game early on, Clemson’s defense uncharacteristically gave up one big passing play after another. While the Yellow Jackets have a potent offense, they cannot pass the ball with the same effectiveness as the Orange. After getting exposed by a determined Miami defense two weeks ago, the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense will likely struggle to consistently put up points against a well-rested Tigers defensive front.
Final Score: Yellow Jackets 20 Tigers 36 Spread: EVEN
Washington State Cougars (15) vs. Arizona Wildcats
Although the Pac-12 may not have a team clinch a playoff berth by the end of the season, there are still plenty of notable west coast matchups to visually devour until then. Aside from an embarrassing loss to California two weeks ago, the Cougars have proven to be the best at passing the ball in the Pac-12, which has been helped even more thanks to a stingy defense that keeps them on the field. While the Wildcats are offensively sound in their own right, their success has come via a dynamic run game, which is led by dual-threat quarterback Khalil Tate. What has kept the Wildcats from being truly great is an awful defense that has relinquished just under 30 points per game this year. For that reason, I see the Cougars putting up big numbers on the road.
Final Score: Cougars 37 Wildcats 29 Spread: Washington State -2.5
